{ "report": "October 2026 model performance", "frozen_at": "2026-11-14T00:15:40.410772+00:00", "record_unit": "One canonical exact product URL for an individual release. Reported PR, not guaranteed physical base supply.", "cohort": { "start_inclusive": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z", "end_exclusive": "2026-11-01T00:00:00Z", "assignment": "Stored sales-close timestamp, never first listing observation.", "universe": "Observed local tracker records only. Complete official catalog denominator is unknown.", "formats": "is_set=1 or set/pack/bundle/box/case in product portion after subject separator excluded. Single-card team and multi-athlete releases retained.", "identity": "Exact product URL deduplication: prefer a non-null final result, then earliest ID. Conflicting results are a gate. No unverified semantic merges." }, "summary": { "cohort_cards": 313, "cards_with_eligible_outputs": 313, "finalized_cards_with_outputs": 307, "cards_without_outputs": 0, "missing_outcome_cards_with_outputs": 4, "evidence_held_cards_with_outputs": 2, "final_snapshot_rows_audited": 7607, "retained_model_outputs": 7607, "raw_label_count": 26, "family_group_count": 19, "operational_selected_outputs": 0, "decision_eligible_outputs": 0, "research_only_outputs": 7607, "within20_any_n": 275, "within10_any_n": 240, "within20_any_pct": 89.57654723127035, "within10_any_pct": 78.17589576547232 }, "evaluation_policy": "Latest timestamped final-preclose output per product and recorded raw model label. Timing must precede stored and current close; run timestamp must match; cutoff must not exceed output time. Outcome joined from canonical card, never selected for closeness.", "interpretation_rules": [ "Per-label metrics use each label own eligible denominator.", "Closest-of-many coverage is retrospective and is not prospective single-model accuracy.", "Unknown outcomes remain excluded, never treated as zero.", "Recorded family groups do not establish statistical independence.", "Public labels do not expose proprietary inputs, formulas, weights, collection methods, or model-selection logic." ], "limitations": [ "Stored timestamps show chronological eligibility, not independent attestation of immutability or training-data cutoff.", "No operational selection or decision-eligible retained output: operational accuracy is unavailable.", "Models have differing eligible denominators; per-label rankings do not establish superiority.", "Model-family grouping does not establish independent errors. No effective independent-model count is claimed." ], "baseline": { "description": "Fixed pre-October sport median, descriptive comparator only, not a PrintRun production model or selected policy. Uses outcomes visible in the dated export.", "by_sport": [ { "sport": "ausl", "historical_n": 63, "fixed_point": 860, "n": 0, "median_ape_pct": null, "mean_ape_pct": null, "p90_ape_pct": null, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": null, "within20_pct": null }, { "sport": "entertainment", "historical_n": 6, "fixed_point": 17102.0, "n": 0, "median_ape_pct": null, "mean_ape_pct": null, "p90_ape_pct": null, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": null, "within20_pct": null }, { "sport": "f1", "historical_n": 28, "fixed_point": 4180.5, "n": 6, "median_ape_pct": 34.321997426791484, "mean_ape_pct": 37.31578369097371, "p90_ape_pct": 59.343009730142384, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 1, "within10_pct": 0.0, "within20_pct": 16.666666666666668 }, { "sport": "mlb", "historical_n": 397, "fixed_point": 1225, "n": 98, "median_ape_pct": 66.51565074135091, "mean_ape_pct": 61.61955499153923, "p90_ape_pct": 94.10818295433938, "within10_n": 4, "within20_n": 11, "within10_pct": 4.081632653061225, "within20_pct": 11.224489795918368 }, { "sport": "nba", "historical_n": 44, "fixed_point": 5272.0, "n": 46, "median_ape_pct": 94.35072630002189, "mean_ape_pct": 297.01550515938874, "p90_ape_pct": 817.8717631955042, "within10_n": 4, "within20_n": 7, "within10_pct": 8.695652173913043, "within20_pct": 15.217391304347826 }, { "sport": "nfl", "historical_n": 20, "fixed_point": 2715.0, "n": 58, "median_ape_pct": 54.48090911563181, "mean_ape_pct": 115.96252822669476, "p90_ape_pct": 278.35589143390547, "within10_n": 4, "within20_n": 13, "within10_pct": 6.896551724137931, "within20_pct": 22.413793103448278 }, { "sport": "nhl", "historical_n": 18, "fixed_point": 447.5, "n": 0, "median_ape_pct": null, "mean_ape_pct": null, "p90_ape_pct": null, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": null, "within20_pct": null }, { "sport": "other", "historical_n": 12, "fixed_point": 3166.5, "n": 17, "median_ape_pct": 387.904468412943, "mean_ape_pct": 732.1115419286666, "p90_ape_pct": 1769.4957453514025, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": 0.0, "within20_pct": 0.0 }, { "sport": "soccer", "historical_n": 109, "fixed_point": 663, "n": 64, "median_ape_pct": 60.17982108073011, "mean_ape_pct": 102.01785050864973, "p90_ape_pct": 264.5066658659621, "within10_n": 7, "within20_n": 14, "within10_pct": 10.9375, "within20_pct": 21.875 }, { "sport": "tennis", "historical_n": 6, "fixed_point": 4135.5, "n": 1, "median_ape_pct": 70.817843866171, "mean_ape_pct": 70.817843866171, "p90_ape_pct": 70.817843866171, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": 0.0, "within20_pct": 0.0 }, { "sport": "ufc", "historical_n": 14, "fixed_point": 3515.0, "n": 4, "median_ape_pct": 252.26140106699174, "mean_ape_pct": 227.44856330387262, "p90_ape_pct": 349.08790802242527, "within10_n": 0, "within20_n": 0, "within10_pct": 0.0, "within20_pct": 0.0 }, { "sport": "wwe", "historical_n": 40, "fixed_point": 1197.5, "n": 13, "median_ape_pct": 45.0435979807251, "mean_ape_pct": 51.82747403638318, "p90_ape_pct": 94.84166210123301, "within10_n": 1, "within20_n": 1, "within10_pct": 7.6923076923076925, "within20_pct": 7.6923076923076925 } ] } }