October Topps NOW: Ten Releases, 28.9% of the Volume
Ten releases supplied 28.9% of reported units in October’s 308-outcome sample. See why removing the leaders barely changes the median print run.
If the biggest cards disappeared from the table, would October still look like a big-run month? The answer depends on whether you mean total production or the middle release.
The ten largest releases supplied 28.9% of the reported units in October’s 308-outcome sample. Remove all ten and the median moves from 1,616 to 1,570. The leaders matter much more to the sum than to the center of the distribution.
How much sits at the top?
The largest included result, LeBron James NBA Card 1 at 102,927, contributes 9.3% of 1,104,384 reported units. The five largest contribute 219,032 units, or 19.8%; the ten largest contribute 318,646, or 28.9%. Each release enters once.
These shares apply to positive, included results for individual-card releases observed with an October UTC sales close. Four unknown outcomes, one unconfirmed record and the Messi two-card farewell pack are outside the calculation. The companion state report gives the full 313-candidate denominator.
Share of October’s included reported units
Cumulative shares, largest releases first; n=308 included outcomes.
Remove the leaders and recalculate
Without the largest release, 307 outcomes remain: 1,001,457 reported units and a median of 1,606. Without the largest five, 303 remain: 885,352 units and a median of 1,580. Without the largest ten, 298 remain: 785,738 units and a median of 1,570.
Removing ten releases cuts the reported total by 28.9%, but lowers the median by only 46 units, about 2.8%. That is the useful collector distinction. A blockbuster changes the total sharply while doing comparatively little to the ordinary release’s position.
One joint card is still one release
A card featuring Patrick Mahomes II and Tom Brady does not become two products when its print run enters this study. The same rule applies to team cards: one release, one quantity.
Giving the full print run to every named athlete would inflate an athlete-share total. This is a release concentration study. It does not rank exclusive athlete demand, identify how many people bought cards, or show whether a handful of customers placed most orders.
A pack needs a different denominator
Messi’s Final Farewell product contains two cards per pack according to Topps’ official listing. Adding its pack quantity to single-card print runs would mix different purchased units. Converting packs into physical pieces would answer another question and still would not establish the quantity of every variation.
A chart can be mathematically tidy and still compare the wrong things. Check the unit before interpreting the size of any release.
Use concentration for context, not a price target
For a new card, a same-program comparison is usually more useful than the all-program total. The concentration result tells you why a record-sized headline should not automatically lift your expectation for an unrelated release.
The removal exercise is descriptive sensitivity analysis. It does not estimate what collectors would have bought if those ten cards had never existed. The full sample remains the headline denominator, and the ranked download retains every included release.
Methods and limits
Rank the 308 positive included outcomes from largest to smallest. Divide each cumulative sum by 1,104,384. Recompute the median on the remaining releases for each removal scenario. The downloadable ranking supplies all 308 rows, their official product links and cumulative totals.
Results were checked November 14, 2026. The cohort is an observed archive rather than a complete catalog. Missing close dates, unknown outcomes and unconfirmed products can affect the distribution. Production concentration cannot establish revenue concentration, buyer concentration, resale liquidity or purchase profitability.
Frequently asked questions.
Does 28.9% mean ten athletes drove the market?
No. It is the reported-unit share of ten releases. Joint cards and team cards count once, and the study does not attribute exclusive athlete demand.
Why does the median barely move?
The median follows the middle ranked observation. Removing a few very large values changes the sum much more than it changes that middle position.
Are these shares for the whole Topps NOW market?
No. They are conditional on 308 included October outcomes in the observed PrintRun archive.